I think I will just buy the overpriced IBM serial adapter cable. I've run out of other ideas to try, nobody else seems to know the pinout. If I'm right about it just being a nonstandard pinout and it works then I can figure it out with a multimeter and publish it on the internet so no-one else has to buy the overpriced adapter. If I'm wrong and it still doesn't work then I can return the cable (... and I'm still stuck with a massive £500 30kg server that doesn't boot)